Saturday, September 10, 2016

Brexit - the Aftermath

Economists have been making hay this past few weeks since the people of Britain told the EU to shove it. The personal economy of various academic and business and government economists have been boosted by the media payments for appearances and articles. Most claim Britain is doomed. The sky is falling in.  Britain cannot survive without Angela Merkey and Francy Hollande. 

Hah ! Phooey, say I.

And those economists are not just in Great Britain - which is intent on getting its 'Great' back. The nay-sayers have been on the Jousting field with the smiley faces, trying hard to ruin the fun, but in fact causing laughs all round.

Not much comment from the customers in the UK Room though, so I had to ask. And while we here in the Tavern care little about Hilary's Village out there we do take a passing interest in our Anglophile neighbours wherever they are. The media of course lack both Hope and History. The moment is Now for them. A great nation that has stood for several thousand years is not - in the Tavern Keeper's 'Umble View - about to fall in a heap, wailing like a bereft maiden.

A peek at one of Britains oldest and lovliest cities might just cast some sense and light on the matter and young Chris Riches gave us some good-weather news.
Brexit-backing city sees consumer spending and tourist numbers BOOM after historic vote
A BREXIT-backing city today said their decision was justified - after their consumer spending and tourist numbers increased to record-levels after the vote.
The Roman-walled city of Chester provides the backdrop for the Channel 4 soap Hollyoaks and in June voted to 'Leave' the European Union (EU).
It has already been claimed the vote to leave the EU has sparked a property-buying boom in London and recent UK retail sales figures show consumer confidence is up.
Now business leaders in Chester have said the weeks after the June 23rd Brexit vote have bizarrely been their best ever for visitors and spending.
Firms said rather than the doom-mongering claims that a 'Leave' vote would see the economy collapse overnight, they have all flourished.
Data compiled by independent retail analysts Springboard on behalf of business group CH1ChesterBID - the Business Improvement District representing over 500 Chester firms - said there was a sharp increase in city centre footfall during July, with visitor numbers up by 13 per cent this time last year to 1.8 million.
Chester said their rise in visitor numbers was firmly ahead of the rest of the UK, which saw a small average footfall increase of 0.3 per cent during the same month when compared to 2015.
Official figures released by the British Retail Consortium (BRC) also show sales across the UK were up by 1.1 per cent in July, compared with the same month in 2015, rising at their fastest pace since January.
Carl Critchlow, BID Manager at CH1ChesterBID, said the Brexit vote has appeared to have the opposite effect to what 'Remain' campaigners claimed.
Mr Critchlow said: "July's bumper footfall figures for Chester combined with the national spending data from the BRC are welcome news for our city centre economy.
"We enjoyed some sunny weather during July and that often contributes to increased footfall
"But we're delighted that the figures for Chester compare so well against other major city economies in the UK. 
We have seen a noticeable increase in people after the vote spending freely
"July was the first full month in a post-Brexit environment, so we're really pleased to see that the vote hasn't had any impact on consumer confidence." 
Local fashion boutique manager Claire Denning said: "We have seen a noticeable increase in people after the vote spending freely, which was not what we feared.
"We thought the economy would suffer and spending would go down and visitors would drop.
"The opposite has appeared to happen which is great news for us." 
Chester is one of the UK's oldest cities and was founded as a "castrum" or Roman fort with the name Deva Victrix in the reign of the Emperor Vespasian in 79 AD.
Chester and Cheshire West voted to leave the European Union in the UK's historic referendum with a 50.6 per cent share at the polls but that was against the campaigning of local MPs.
Each of Cheshire West's four MPs - Chris Matheson (Chester, Labour), Justin Madders (Ellesmere Port and Neston, Labour), Graham Evans (Weaver Vale, Conservative) and Antoinette Sandbach (Eddisbury, Conservative) - had each laid out their support for staying in the EU.
One can be irrational in hopefulness, but a chap can also take rational heart in well-grounded history. 2000 years is not to be sniffed at or snuffed out.

Meanwhile the doom-laden, dark hearts will pontificate and seek the demise of the brave. Even from across the pond. Go back a few weeks and what sort of gloominess did we expect and see? The 'Atlantic' writers were gazing into their chrystal scrotums and looking for the thesaurus to find doom-laden words their competitors missed.
Britain, Post-Brexit
The latest PMI data show a “dramatic contraction” in the U.K. economy that’s being attributed to the vote.
Here’s what we know on Friday, July 22:
—The first major economic indicator since the Brexit vote shows a “dramatic deterioration” in the U.K. economy.
—The U.K. says it will relinquish its upcoming turn to assume the EU’s six-month presidency.
—Britain voted June 23 to leave the EU by a 52 percent to 48 percent margin. David Cameron resigned last week because of the result, leading to Theresa May becoming the prime minister.
We’re live-blogging the major updates, and you can read how it all unfolded below. All updates are in Eastern Standard Time (GMT -5).
Indeed, they have continued to 'live blog' on the matter long past that date, so do go and see how it has panned out so far.  With gulps, they continued....
8:34 a.m. Friday
Britain’s economy is seeing a “dramatic deterioration” following its decision to leave the EU, according to IHS Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), an important economic indicator. The PMI fell to 47.7 in July, the lowest reading since April 2009. A reading below 50 signifies an economic contraction.
“The downturn, whether manifesting itself in order book cancellations, a lack of new orders or the postponement or halting of projects, was most commonly attributed in one way or another to ‘Brexit,’” said Chris Williamson, Markit’s chief economist.
This, in theory, is good for exporters because it makes U.K.-made goods cheaper. Indeed, Williamson noted, the “one ray of light was an improvement in manufacturing export growth to the best for two years as the weak pound helped drive overseas sales.”
The flip side of a cheaper currency was also felt: Import prices spiked.
The International Monetary Fund says Brexit will hit the global economy, but Britain and Europe will be the most affected.
There will officially be a minister to deal with Brexit—in other words to formulate policies to negotiate Britain’s exit from the EU. That minister is David Davis, a champion of civil liberties in the U.K.
And so it continues.

As a Tavern Keeper, I also 'keep books'. One does need to know how the home economy is going. But would I dream of using some of the indicators the economists use? Not likely.

Take GDP for instance. This is supposedly a measure of how wealthy a country is and how healthy its economy is. It is no such thing of course. The bigger the GDP, the more economically powerful a place is, goes the thought. But in reality the GDP is just a measure of the speed that a dollar moves around. 

Oz, for instance, could double its GDP in a week. The Gummunt could take every red cent from everyone one day and hand the lot back, untouched, the next and the GDP will have doubled as far as the national books are made. 

Does trade fluctuate? Of course it does. Do we really learn anything from five minutes of statistics on the daily Stock Markets every evening? Not a bit. Does the Yen exchange with the Euro going up or down, only to go down or up the following week tell us anything interesting? Not to me, it doesn't.

But hopefulness, expectation of the rewards of work and intelligence, an insistence on being responsible for one's own destiny, with God's help, now that is a different matter and the economists have little to say about that.

Drink up and watch Britain continue to flourish despite its weight of modernity.



  1. There are considerable indicators, which even Carney had to admit, that we are doing not badly, and it will get better. Sometimes, it's just a matter of removing the doom and gloomers.


Ne meias in stragulo aut pueros circummittam.

Our Bouncer is a gentleman of muscle and guile. His patience has limits. He will check you at the door.

The Tavern gets rowdy visitors from time to time. Some are brain dead and some soul dead. They attack customers and the bar staff and piss on the carpets. Those people will not be allowed in anymore. So... Be Nice..