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Thursday, January 4, 2018

Rising Sea Levels.

We'rrrre aaall dooomed ! Its that time of year again when the nay-sayers and doomsters rise from their Christmas ( which they don't believe in) lethargy, groan at yet another year with no disaster big enough for a sign on a street corner, and look to the seas.  "The sea is rising: the sea is rising." they shout, excitedly.

It hasn't come up the mountain to the Tavern yet. But the US weather folk at NOAA tell us it won't be long.
Personally, I look out and see very little practical, obvious evidence.

High tide at Fort Denison in Sydney Harbour. You can see that if the sea is rising, it's not rising very much.  More evidence that the alarmist figures put out by the climate bigots are a crock.  Al Gore prophecies rises of several metres.


You can see that the sea level has been plateaued since 1950 -- exactly the time that the climate bigots say global warming began. So NONE of the rise was due to global warming. The small amount of global warming we appear to have had in recent decades did not shift the sea level one iota. Fun!

When the water reaches the window, then you can worry. Meanwhile much will be written, many statistics made up and poured over, and vast amounts of GW grants will be given to over-excited scientists. Many scary, imaginative illustrations will be made.

At  NOAA, and elsewhere.
Is sea level rising?
Yes, sea level is rising at an increasing rate.
Believe it or not !! 
What's the difference between global and local sea level?
Just the facts, ma'am.
Global sea level trends and relative sea level trends are different measurements. Just as the surface of the Earth is not flat, the surface of the ocean is also not flat—in other words, the sea surface is not changing at the same rate globally. 
Sea level rise at specific locations may be more or less than the global average due to many local factors: subsidence, upstream flood control, erosion, regional ocean currents, variations in land height, and whether the land is still rebounding from the compressive weight of Ice Age glaciers.
Not to mention the weight of cities !! Oz, for instance is very slowly tipping over with all the building going on on the East side and barely any on the west to even it out !!  And there's all the concrete wellie jobs happening.
Sea level is primarily measured using tide stations and satellite laser altimeters. Tide stations around the globe tell us what is happening at a local level—the height of the water as measured along the coast relative to a specific point on land.
Hmmmm. And photos taken every 50 years or so are just so cheap and easy. Much better to pour vast sums into satellites. 
Satellite measurements provide us with the average height of the entire ocean. Taken together, these tools tell us how our ocean sea levels are changing over time.
Global sea level has been rising over the past century, and the rate has increased in recent decades. In 2014, global sea level was 2.6 inches above the 1993 average—the highest annual average in the satellite record (1993-present). Sea level continues to rise at a rate of about one-eighth of an inch per year.
Aaaarghhh. Where are your water-wings? 
Higher sea levels mean that deadly and destructive storm surges push farther inland than they once did, which also means more frequent nuisance flooding. Disruptive and expensive, nuisance flooding is estimated to be from 300 percent to 900 percent more frequent within U.S. coastal communities than it was just 50 years ago.
The two major causes of global sea level rise are thermal expansion caused by warming of the ocean (since water expands as it warms) and increased melting of land-based ice, such as glaciers and ice sheets. The oceans are absorbing more than 90 percent of the increased atmospheric heat associated with emissions from human activity. 
With continued ocean and atmospheric warming, sea levels will likely rise for many centuries at rates higher than that of the current century.  In the United States, almost 40 percent of the population lives in relatively high-population-density coastal areas, where sea level plays a role in flooding, shoreline erosion, and hazards from storms. Globally, eight of the world's 10 largest cities are near a coast, according to the U.N. Atlas of the Oceans.
Sea level rise at specific locations may be more or less than the global average due to local factors such as land subsidence from natural processes and withdrawal of groundwater and fossil fuels, changes in regional ocean currents, and whether the land is still rebounding from the compressive weight of Ice Age glaciers. 
In urban settings, rising seas threaten infrastructure necessary for local jobs and regional industries. Roads, bridges, subways, water supplies, oil and gas wells, power plants, sewage treatment plants, landfills—virtually all human infrastructure—is at risk from sea level rise.
It really is a lot of crock.
With continued ocean and atmospheric warming, sea levels will likely rise for many centuries at rates higher than that of the current century. In the United States, almost 40 percent of the population lives in relatively high-population-density coastal areas, where sea level plays a role in flooding, shoreline erosion, and hazards from storms. Globally, eight of the world's 10 largest cities are near a coast, according to the U.N. Atlas of the Oceans.
Well you have heard it from NOAA and we still do not see the Government Ark-building scheme. The unemployed are not dragooned to the sea shore and given planks and saws and hammers. 

Safe bet is that we are safe and we need more concrete wellie jobs.

What do you think?

Me? I shall have a pint.

Pax.

4 comments:

  1. I'm not sure what you're telling us here. Are you saying that sea levels aren't rising at all, or that they are rising but 2.4 inches doesn't matter (yet)?

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    Replies
    1. I have yet to see any firm evidence that the seas are rising at all. What we are 'given' is variations. The sea level is a relation to ... what... land. What is ignored is tectonics. Land rises and falls too.

      The issue is the vast amount of public monies spent on a mirage. Crying out in fear (snowflake sincere or mendaciously furphied) because Sydney's Opera House might one day be underwater, when simply looking at what has happened to Fort Denison, shows where derision should be directed.

      Money, like water, flows into the deepest pockets.

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    2. I have yet to see any firm evidence that the seas are rising at all. What we are 'given' is variations. The sea level is a relation to ... what... land. What is ignored is tectonics. Land rises and falls too.

      And the one constant factor in Earth's climate is that it varies over time. During the Medieval Warm Period Fort Denison (if it existed) might have been totally underwater. During the most recent Little Ice Age it might have been high and dry.

      For the last few million years the climate has been particularly unstable. It's sobering to remember that the last Ice Age (I mean the last full-blown Ice Age) only ended about 12,000 years ago. Interglacial periods typically last around 10,000 years. A new Ice Age is overdue. If that happens the problem for Sydneysiders will be that they might not have Sydney Harbour any more.

      And as you correctly point out land masses are not stable either. Not just tectonics but erosion, deposition of silt, etc.

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    3. And the taxpayers' monies flow downhill to the deepest dirtiest UN scientists.

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Ne meias in stragulo aut pueros circummittam.

Our Bouncer is a gentleman of muscle and guile. His patience has limits. He will check you at the door.

The Tavern gets rowdy visitors from time to time. Some are brain dead and some soul dead. They attack customers and the bar staff and piss on the carpets. Those people will not be allowed in anymore. So... Be Nice..