Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Bad Weather Forecast.

One hears a lot from behind the bar in a Tavern. People talk. They have conversations, if not with a few or a lot of others then into their tankards. I let you, readers, into some of the things I hear.

One of the sidebar links is to Jo Nova, an intelligent, diligent and seeker-after- truth woman.  Truth about the Global-Warming scam. I often see her and her friends in here, showing those strange and almost disappearing things - FACTS.
""Because most journalists and politicians desperately want to believe the bureau knows best, they turn away from the truth and ignore the facts."" - Jennifer Marohasy.
She is never alone. She brings in many other clever people who are prepared to do the hard yards too. Many people listen with as much diligence as she displays. Her words are heard by many more than come to this Tavern. I do my bit in helping others hear.

You would think that the sort of questioning she displays - intelligent and factually based - would be emulated by the mainstream media. But that is not always the case, especially when we talk of Global Warming and the 'Evidence'.

Mainstream Media (the MSM) does not like the internet, a place where what the MSM publishes is 'controlled'. One main method of control is to hide important opinions behind a Pay Wall so that people do not speak about it in the bars. Unless, of course, someone gets hold of those opinions quickly.

Gary Scarrabelotti brought in something from the MSM - the Australian Newspaper - which is virtually inaccessible unless you pay up.  It was a piece by Jennifer Marohasy, a senior fellow at the Institute of Public Affairs. Jennifer has published a great deal about climate and especially as it affects Oz. She is a lady whom one does well to hear. 
Ideology heats up climate debate
For the true believer, it is too awful to even consider that the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) could be exaggerating global warming by adjusting figures. 
This doesn’t mean, though, that it’s not true.
In fact, under prime minister Tony Abbott, a panel of eminent statisticians was formed to investigate these claims detailed in The Australian newspaper in August and September last year.
The panel did acknowledge in its first report that the bureau homogenised the temperature data: that it adjusted figures.  
The same report also concluded it was unclear whether these adjustments resulted in an overall increase or decrease in the warming trend.
No conclusions could be drawn because the panel did not work through a single example of homogenisation, not even for Rutherglen. 
Rutherglen, in north¬eastern Victoria, is an agricultural research station with a continuous minimum temperature record unaffected by equipment changes or documented site moves but where the BOM nevertheless adjusted the temperatures.
This had the effect of turning a temperature time series without a statistically significant trend into global warming of almost 2C a century.
According to media reports last week, a thorough investigation of the bureau’s methodology was prevented because of intervention by Environment Minister Greg Hunt.
Hunt was appointed by the new Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull, who has wasted no time in placing people to follow his 'agenda', which is not favourable to questioning the GWScam. 
He apparently argued in cabinet that the credibility of the institution was paramount — that it was important the public had trust in the bureau’s data and forecasts, so the public knew to heed warnings of bushfires and ¬cyclones.
Hunt defends the bureau because it has a critical role to play in providing the community with reliable weather forecasts.
So, be clear here. The 'Institution' must remain credible (that is, believable) despite it lying like a Dicky Mint trim-sheet.  

Hello 'double-speak'.
This is indeed one of its core responsibilities. It would be better able to perform this function, however, if it used proper techniques for quality control of temperature data and the best available techniques for forecasting rainfall.
There has been no improvement in its seasonal rainfall forecasts for two decades because it uses general circulation models. These are primarily tools for demonstrating global warming, with dubious, if any, skill at actually forecasting weather or climate.
Consider, for example, the millennium drought and the flooding rains that followed in 2010.
Back in 2007 and 2008, David Jones, then and still the manager of climate monitoring and prediction at the Bureau of Meteorology, wrote that climate change was so rampant in Australia, “We don’t need meteorological data to see it”, and that the drought, caused by climate change, was a sign of the “hot and dry future” that we all collectively faced.
Then the drought broke, as usual in Australia, with flooding rains.
Yep, we don't need met data that deliberately lies to us and uses forecast methods that have little to do with forecasting real weather. 
But the bureau was incapable of forecasting an exceptionally wet summer because such an event was contrary to how senior management at the bureau perceived our climate future.

You must not contradict the 'Narrative. The real weather didn't get that memo.
So, despite warning signs evident in sea surface temperature patterns across the Pacific through 2010, Brisbane’s Wivenhoe dam, originally built for flood mitigation, was allowed to fill through the spring of 2010, and kept full in advance of the torrential rains in January 2011.
The resulting catastrophic flooding of Brisbane is now recognised as a “dam release flood”, and the subject of a class-action lawsuit by Brisbane residents against the Queensland government.
Indeed, despite an increasing investment in supercomputers, there is ample evidence 
ideology is trumping rational decision-making at the bureau 
on key issues that really matter, such as the prediction of drought and flood cycles. 
Because most journalists and politicians desperately want to believe the bureau knows best, they turn away from the truth and ignore the facts.
News Corp Australia journalist Anthony Sharwood got it completely wrong in his weekend article defending the bureau’s homogenisation of the temperature record. 
I tried to explain to him on the phone last Thursday how the bureau didn’t actually do what it said when it homogenised temperature time series for places such as Rutherglen.
Sharwood kept coming back to the issue of “motivations”. He kept asking me why on earth the bureau would want to mislead the Australian public.
I should have kept with the methodology, but I suggested he read what Jones had to say in the Climategate emails. Instead of considering the content of the emails that I mentioned, however, Sharwood wrote in his article that, “Climategate was blown out of proportion” and “independent investigations cleared the researchers of any form of wrongdoing”.
None so deaf as will not hear. You can take a climate-whore to the Gates of Knowledge but you cannot make him think. 
Nevertheless, the content of the Climategate emails includes quite a lot about homogenisation, and the scientists’ motivations. 
For example, there is an email thread in which Phil Jones (University of East Anglia) and Tom Wigley (University of Adelaide) discuss the need to get rid of a blip in global temperatures around 1940-44. Specifically, Wigley suggested they reduce ocean temperatures by an arbitrary 0.15C. 
These are exactly the types of arbitrary adjustments made throughout the historical temperature record for Australia: adjustments made independently of any of the purported acceptable reasons for making adjustments, including site moves and equipment changes.
Sharwood incorrectly wrote in his article: “Most weather stations have moved to cooler areas (ie, areas away from the urban heat island effect). So if scientists are trying to make the data reflect warmer temperatures, they’re even dumber than the sceptics think.”
In fact, many (not most) weather stations have moved from post offices to airports, which have hotter, not cooler, daytime temperatures.
Think of all that lovely concrete ! 
Furthermore, the urban heat island creeps into the official temperature record for Australia not because of site moves but because the record at places such as Cape Otway lighthouse is adjusted to make it similar to the record in built-up areas such as Melbourne, which clearly are affected by the urban heat island.
I know this sounds absurd. 
It is absurd, and it is also true. 
Indeed, a core problem with the methodology the bureau uses is its reliance on “comparative sites” to make adjustments to data at other places. I detail the Cape Otway lighthouse example in a recent paper published in the journal Atmospheric Research, volume 166.
It is so obvious that there is an urgent need for a proper, thorough and independent review of operations at the bureau. 
But it would appear our politicians and many mainstream media are set against the idea.
Evidently they are too conventional in their thinking to consider such an important Australian ¬institution could now be ruled by ideology.

Be not decieved.

Look for the facts.

And shout a round for Gary and Jennifer and Jo.


No comments:

Post a Comment

Ne meias in stragulo aut pueros circummittam.

Our Bouncer is a gentleman of muscle and guile. His patience has limits. He will check you at the door.

The Tavern gets rowdy visitors from time to time. Some are brain dead and some soul dead. They attack customers and the bar staff and piss on the carpets. Those people will not be allowed in anymore. So... Be Nice..